The global aviation industry has experienced what might be considered severe turbulence in the past few years. The COVID-19 pandemic hit the industry hard, erasing two decades of global passenger traffic growth in just a few months. Stringent measures implemented by governments worldwide to keep the pandemic under control resulted in a substantial decline of 65.9 % in air traffic. Nevertheless, by the end of 2020, the industry began displaying initial signs of recovery and has been gradually rebounding since then. The airline industry is again recognized as one of the most rapidly expanding transportation sectors in an increasingly interconnected global economy. Now that everyone agrees the industry has “flown through the storm,” let’s take a look at what might lie ahead in the next decade.
With the resurgence in air travel, the experience has become increasingly disappointing and hectic for thousands of passengers as they are often met with unexpected and rather sudden flight delays and cancellations, Rebookings have also become equally stressful as most same day flights are full which impacts available options. How has air travel become so chaotic? Part of the answer lies in a prolonged problem, the aviation industry is more short staffed than ever, an unfortunate consequence of the massive layoffs which occurred during the pandemic when airlines were bleeding cash. The staffing shortages have affected nearly every aspect of the industry, ranging from ground staff, airline and airport personnel, and even air traffic controllers.
But, the issue of pilot shortage has become more prominent than ever, with airlines such as United and Delta even starting their own flight academies. Although the Air Line Pilots Association disputes the notion of a pilot shortage, airline executives generally agree that indeed a serious shortfall of qualified flight deck candidates exists. That prompted United Airlines to open its own flight academy in January of 2022 from a 340,000 square foot facility at the Phoenix Goodyear Airport. The carrier acquired the academy from the now shuttered Westwind School of Aeronautics in 2020 as it laid plans to hire 10,000 pilots over the next 10 years. Delta Air Lines also opened a flight training academy in June of last year. Called the Delta Propel Flight Academy, the school operates in partnership with Vero Beach, Florida-based Skyborne Airline Academy. The airline calls the academy one of four pathways created for aspiring pilots through its Propel Pilot Career Path Program. Since the program's inception in 2018, almost 100 pilots have completed Propel’s existing company, college, and community pathways and now fly for Delta. Another 700 participants have enrolled in the program. As the aviation industry continues to evolve, it’s expected that demand will continue to outpace the growth in the number of qualified pilots.
While we’re on the subject of pilots, there’s been an ongoing debate over single-pilot operations in commercial aviation. I’d say it’s very doubtful that such a practice will ever be adopted by airlines, even if it does reduce their operating expenses and help with the pilot shortage issue. Although next-generation aircraft technology has advanced to sophisticated levels of automation, it still leaves too much at risk. In fact, the risks of being over reliant on technology can precipitate a decline in basic manual and cognitive flying skills due to lack of “feel” for the aircraft.There’s also the risk of the single pilot suddenly becoming incapacitated. And, having just one person on the flight deck increases the risk of terrorists becoming more daring knowing there’s only one person to overpower. Security is one of the most important factors in the aviation industry, which is why single pilot operations for commercial aircraft is not likely to occur within the next decade.
Technology advances appear to be inevitable and the onset of the pandemic spurred the speed of their adoption, with an increase in self-service platforms and electronic boarding systems. That trend is likely to continue into the next decade with the evolution of passenger services via biometrics and cloud technology, whereby passengers will perform all services on their own prior to boarding the aircraft while the airport and airline will track their every movement in real time. Several airlines have already started implementing electronic flight bags for their pilots. However, the trend is sure to become even more popular as this technology evolves, allowing pilots to better perform basic flight planning calculations with a greater variety of digital documentation. Artificial intelligence could also be implemented in commercial aircraft flight decks to aid pilots in situational awareness and/or precision control. Even so, I do not see evolution of this technology kicking any pilot out of the cockpit. Many carriers have also adopted a net-zero emissions policy by 2050. In this regard, sustainable aviation fuels and green aircraft technology will begin to penetrate deeper into the market. New engine core concepts and retrofitted or blended wing designs are also expected to be introduced, as they promise higher fuel efficiency benefits when compared with changing aircraft design, aerodynamics, or systems.
The timeline for electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft in commercial aviation might still be in the late infancy stages now, but it has already been given the green light to fly. Manufacturers such as Archer, Heart Aerospace and Eve Air Mobility have already received significant orders from major carriers such as United, Air Canada and Air New Zealand. Aircraft and cabin designs from these manufacturers have been produced, with some having already test flown their prototype aircraft after receiving piloted permits from the relevant authorities. For some, these electrical products are likely to take off in 2028 or even earlier if all tests, certifications and building of infrastructure proceeds smoothly. With the speed at which the urban air mobility revolution is going, it’s plausible that the manufacturers’ estimations will become a reality within the decade. Passengers could be hopping on electric flying aircraft (or flying taxis as they’ve been dubbed) to travel between cities to beat the congested airport and rush hour traffic on the highways.
The dream of commercially viable supersonic flight may well become a reality by the end of the decade with aircraft manufacturers currently in a race to build jets that are not only cost-effective but also more environmentally friendly than the Concorde. With the combined challenges of recouping pandemic losses and curbing carbon emissions, the market is ripe for airlines to develop new revenue sources. But critics are skeptical that the financial, technological and environmental hurdles can be overcome. So, how does the new generation of supersonic jets compare? Boom Supersonic’s “Overture” jet is set to be rolled out in 2025 and carry its first passengers by 2029. The plane is being designed to carry 65 to 80 passengers at Mach 1.7 over water – about twice the speed of today’s fastest commercial airplanes – and could fly more than 600 routes around the world in half the time. Other competitors in the supersonic jet market include Lockheed Martin, which is working in collaboration with NASA on the X-59 Quesst (Quiet Supersonic Technology). The focus of that aircraft is to reduce sonic booms to a sound described “as loud as a car door closing.” NASA will fly the X-59 over communities in the United States in 2025 to collect data that will relate to the future of commercial supersonic flight over land.
Enhanced safety, efficiency and environmental sustainability are watchwords for aviation’s future. None of us knows what lies ahead with certainty, but developments on the drawing boards today may yet become reality tomorrow.
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