US airlines need help and the Federal Government has responded. Uncle Sam has stepped in on several occasions handing out barrels of cash and arranging for multiple low-interest loans in an effort to prop up the carriers and to ensure that those airline workers who hadn't accepted severance packages remained on the payroll. Initially, on March 27, 2020, President Trump signed into law the CARES Act designed to lessen the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. One important component was the Payroll Support Program (PSP) which provided up to $32 billion in federal aid to maintain employment in the airline industry by providing funds to cover employee wages, salaries and benefits through September 30. It was hoped that a recovery in travel demand would materialize last summer. It didn’t.
Policymakers next enacted the 2021 Consolidated Appropriations Act on December 22 which provided an additional $16 billion in federal financial assistance to air carriers through the PSP Extension. In exchange, the airlines had to avoid layoffs and furloughs through the end of March 2021. This second round of federal stimulus money went to the nation’s airlines in January. With cash in hand, they called back more than 32,000 workers who were furloughed last fall. American Airlines had laid off 9,000 of its workers in September. CEO Doug Parker thanked elected officials for restoring the Payroll Support Program. “We appreciate the confidence Congress and the administration are placing in us by extending this additional support and we proudly accept the responsibility that comes with it.” United CEO Scott Kirby and President Brett Hart said their company would restore “temporary employment” to thousands of their out-of-work employees, according to CNN. “This is certainly good news for our economy, our industry and our airline - but it’s especially good news for those who have been without a paycheck, and we can’t wait to welcome them back,” the pair were quoted.
Things haven't gotten any better since then. The head of a group representing major US passenger airlines made the case before lawmakers for a third round of government assistance earlier this month. “We are still struggling and in dire straits,” Nick Calio, who heads Airlines for America, a trade group representing American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and others, said in testimony before the House Transportation and Infrastructure’s aviation subcommittee. “We were hoping it would be better by now.” He warned that without the new round of assistance, tens of thousands of aviation workers would “lose their jobs - or experience reductions to wages and benefits - effective April 1.” Once again, the government stepped in “to save the day.” The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law by President Biden on March 11, includes another $14 billion in payroll support for US airlines. This is the third round of federal aid for the industry, given in exchange for their not furloughing or cutting workers’ pay rates through September 30. Two of the biggest US carriers then cancelled 27,000 furloughs. American CEO Parker and President Robert Isom circulated a memo to workers informing them that 13,000 furlough warnings issued last month would be “happily cancelled.” United Airlines similarly withdrew 14,000 furloughs which would have gone into effect in April.
The industry has thus far received $62 billion from the government to keep their thousands of workers employed, workers who would have otherwise lost their jobs for lack of business. Now, I am sympathetic to the plight of these airline employees but we appear to be on a merry-go-round of continuous government aid after the “clock runs out”. Job losses in an industry that has seen a massive drop in demand for its services isn’t the worst thing in the world, argues Marc Scribner, a transportation researcher with the Reason Foundation. “The outlook isn’t great for the airlines,” he said even before the second round of payroll support, claiming another round of bailouts would just be an expensive way of delaying an inevitable shedding of jobs. The industry itself doesn’t expect passenger volumes to return to 2019 levels until 2024. What Veronique de Rugy argued in a column for Reason, has come true in that bailouts tend to set the stage for still more bailouts by propping up lots of unprofitable businesses. Without increased numbers of passengers, putting an end to government aid would lead to job losses and possibly even bankruptcy for some carriers but it would also encourage the restructuring necessary for an airline to return to profitability. This wouldn’t be anything new since all the major US airlines have previously restructured under federal bankruptcy protection.
Let’s remember that most US airlines entered 2020 with solid balance sheets, thanks to strong industry profitability over the previous decade. Among major carriers, American was an exception to this rule. The airline giant squandered billions of dollars on share buybacks in recent years, even as it spent heavily to upgrade its fleet. That put it in a weaker position compared with its peers like Delta Air Lines. Like all the majors, American borrowed lots of money during 2020 to cover its cash burn. By year-end, it had $32.6 billion in debt and finance leases on its balance sheet, up from $24.3 billion one year earlier. They entered 2021 with $6.9 billion of unrestricted cash and investments, plus $7.4 billion of additional borrowing capacity (mostly from a government loan commitment). Having $14.3 billion of liquidity might seem like a lot however, American is still burning lots of cash. It expects average daily cash burn of $30 million in the First Quarter and that’s equivalent to $2.7 billion over the course of the three-month period. Contrast that with United which expects its March cash flow to be positive.
But American just bought itself some more time by lining up $10 billion in new financing. This new package buys time for American, while allowing the airline to avoid unfavorable terms associated with the federal loans available under the CARES Act. But that doesn’t mean the company is out of the woods by any means. First American recorded mediocre adjusted pre-tax margins of 6.3 per cent in both 2018 and 2019 and margins could be even lower going forward. Second, the company had over $40 billion of net debt (including pension and lease liabilities) at the close of 2020, far too much relative to its earning power. The new debt package reduces the risk of near-term liquidity problems but doesn’t address American’s underlying problem of excessive leverage.
As a result, consolidation may loom on the horizon whereby we might just see the big US carriers shrink from four to three with American going into the sunset. Airline mergers are not easy. The Justice Department would have to sign off on any deal and they tend to frown when too much power ends up in the hands of too few players. Unionized workforces that rank pilots based on seniority also make it harder to combine carriers into one unit. But rising debt, continued cash burn and decreased demand may make this all but inevitable for American. Personally, I hope this doesn't occur but we all need to be aware of the risks the carrier incurs on its present path.
Until next time...stay safe.
The relative rate at which American is burning through funds compared to competitors would indicate that you are right - a restructure would seem to be imperative. Maybe Elon Musk will step in to electrify them!
Very informative. One of our many wishes for the future is airline travel as we once enjoyed. So, do we travel American to boost their profits or will that not even be enough to get them back to where they should be in the running? Only time will tell. Sometimes it’s hard to say goodby.